Sí, así como leen. Sí cae Putin, caerá Nicolás Maduro. Y, ¿por qué lo digo? Pues, todo responde a las realidades y a lo intereses internacionales, como dirían en mi pueblo “cada quien hala brasa para su sardina”.
Por Omar González Moreno
En este momento la administración de Joe Biden le interesa un acercamiento con Nicolás Maduro y lo hace movido por la realidad internacional; la Casa Blanca quiere neutralizar a los amigos de Moscú en el hemisferio americano, y Miraflores es uno de los aliados más importantes de Putin en este lado del mundo.
Washington no le conviene repetir la historia de la crisis de La Habana, cuando la extinta Unión Soviética iba a colocar armas nucleares en la isla caribeña a escasos metros de Estados Unidos de Norteamérica. Esto es impensable para los estadounidenses, por esta causa maniobran.
La Casa Blanca necesita tener neutrales a cubanos, nicaragüenses y venezolanos, no por su impacto bélico sino por su importancia geopolítica y por sus riquezas naturales y estratégicas, por ejemplo el petróleo venezolano.
¡Ajá! ¿Qué pasaría si la amenaza de Putin desaparece? Entonces la política estadounidenses volvería a cambiar, ahora bajo una realidad distinta y otros intereses. Allí Nicolás Maduro perdería importancia táctica y estratégica, y se le abrirían muchas opciones a los gringos.
En ese escenario Maduro estaría solo, y su valor caería. Pues, al no existir el riesgo de Putin y de la Rusia expansionistas, entonces Estados Unidos apretaría su posición hacia Miraflores y sus ocupantes perderían el margen de maniobra que en este momento poseen.
Si cae Putin, Maduro caería más atrás, pues perdería todo soporte y, si a mi me preguntan los Chinos no lo salvarían a menos que el titán de Asia dé un paso hacia adelante y trate de ocupar la posición de Rusia, lo que generaría un tercer escenario.
Ahora bien, lo que está planteado en este momento es que Biden necesita a Maduro quieto; es por ello que propone el levantamiento de sanciones y la restitución de las relaciones comerciales entre ambas naciones. Y, Maduro se aprovecha de la ocasión para atornillarse en el coroto y darle la espalda a Putin, en una decisión que de seguro ya consultaron y acordaron con el Kremlin.
Entonces, la decisión de la Casa Blanca sobre Venezuela no debe ni desalentar a nadie de un lado, ni tampoco debe ser motivo de gran alegría por el otro. Porque los intereses y las coyunturas cambian, y lo que vivimos hoy, ya mañana no será.
Nicolás Maduro está consciente de todo esto, y debemos admitir que se la está jugando. En el fondo él sabe todos los riesgos que pesan sobre su cabeza y que si la jugada le sale mal terminará juzgado por tribunales internacionales, pues ningún acuerdo momentáneo borra la investigación que se lleva adelante a través de la Corte Penal Internacional.
Y mientras estos escenarios ocurren, se materializan, y los grandes jugadores mueven sus tableros de geopolítica, aquí, en la Venezuela adentro, los ciudadanos siguen enfrentándose a los problemas del día a día, por ejemplo ya empiezan a escasear productos como la harina de trigo que venían directo de Rusia y la gasolina de Irán. La lista sigue. Así de simple.
La guerra también tiene sus repercusiones sociales y económicas, que por lo general las pagan los integrantes más vulnerables de nuestra sociedad; lo pagan usted señor o señora lectora, lo pagamos todos los que nada tenemos que ver con las intrigas internacionales.
Así de simple.
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